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Bitcoin Halving: A Gift or a Curse for Altcoins?

Bitcoin halving, the event where the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half, is expected to occur in the coming days. This has led to much anticipation among investors, with some hoping for a repeat of previous halvings where Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed in the following months.

However, Mizuho’s Dan Dolev, a managing director at the firm, has a different perspective.

Dolev believes that this time, the impact of the halving on Bitcoin’s price will be different due to higher interest rates and the fact that the upcoming event is not a surprise to the market.

He expects more downside than upside, suggesting that the enthusiasm for Bitcoin and its ripple effect on the broader crypto landscape could be dampened.

The concern for Dolev is primarily with Coinbase, where he has an underperform rating. He believes that if Bitcoin continues to lose momentum, it will drag down altcoins and eventually lead to spread contraction on the retail side. He thinks that we are already in a Bitcoin bear market and that it’s starting to affect the altcoin market.

The historical data shows that Bitcoin halvings have led to a bull run, which lifts the altcoin market as well. However, it is difficult to predict the exact impact on altcoins, as their performance depends on factors like tokenomics, market sentiments, token demand, community support, and USPs.

The Bitcoin halving is a key event that occurs once every four years. After each halving, the BTC mining difficulty increases as the reward for mining it is slashed in half. The three previous halvings have resulted in a significant decline in the dominance of Bitcoin and, at the same time, the altcoin market capitalization (excluding BTC) has climbed rapidly in the months following the mining difficulty change.

The impact of Bitcoin halving on altcoins is not explicitly mentioned in the Bitcoin white paper, but the concept was introduced to help with the shortcomings of Bitcoin in terms of inflation and demand in the network.

As the next Bitcoin halving is estimated to occur in 2024, where the reward will be reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins per block mined, the market will be closely watching to see if the historical trend of a bull run after the halving will hold true.

In conclusion, the upcoming Bitcoin halving could have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

While some anticipate a bull run, others like Dolev believe that this time could be different. Only time will tell how the market will react to this event and whether it will be a gift or a curse for altcoins.

Will the upcoming Bitcoin halving lead to a bull run in the crypto market, or will it result in a bearish trend?


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